Every customer was confused when they decide what to purchase discerning friends and family members. Gift cards are the popular new way to profit from the frustration of gift-buying. According to the National Retail Federation, customers spent more than 25 billion dollars on gift cards during the 2006 holiday season. While gift certificates are often […]
The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking adequate account of the “base rate” or “prior probability” of H. Suppose you know that an urn contains either 80 black balls and 20 white […]
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