ctnuser4 on August 12th, 2009

Every customer was confused when they decide what to purchase discerning friends and family members. Gift cards are the popular new way to profit from the frustration of gift-buying. According to the National Retail Federation, customers spent more than 25 billion dollars on gift cards during the 2006 holiday season. While gift certificates are often […]

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ctnuser4 on August 4th, 2009

The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking adequate account of the “base rate” or “prior probability” of H. Suppose you know that an urn contains either 80 black balls and 20 white […]

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